Chapter 2, Part 1, ACCS Strategic Plan

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Service Area Demographics and Characteristics

Introduction

This chapter provides an overview of the ACCS service area, including information about population, employment, travel patterns, and available transportation services, facilities, and TDM services.

The information used to develop this chapter was gathered in October 2023 from several sources, including the United States Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Virginia Employment Commission; information about available transportation options was gathered from local transit providers and governments. All data sources are documented in footnotes.

Demographics

POPULATION

The ACCS service area (Arlington County) is home to approximately 236,000 residents.2

Population Change and Projection

As shown in Table 2, Arlington County experienced rapid growth in the 2010s, growing by 15 percent between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, which was nearly double the statewide growth rate. A similarly rapid growth rate of 11 percent is projected within the County between 2020 and 2030, after which growth is expected to slow to approximately eight percent between 2030 and 2040, remaining slightly higher than the statewide growth rate during that decade. A County population of approximately 286,000 is projected by 2040.3

Table 2: Population Change and Projections

Age

Figure 5 shows the age distribution as a percentage of the total population for Arlington County and Virginia as a whole. 4 As shown in Table 3, Arlington County has a lower median age and a higher ratio of working-age residents (16 to 64 years), compared to Virginia as a whole. 5 The distribution of the working age population helped define target markets for commuter services in Chapter 4 of this Strategic Plan. The plan also includes strategies for people with recurring travel for non-work trips, such as students and caregivers, in order to focus not just on trips to work but also trips needed to support a household, including shopping, activities, daycare, school, etc.

² Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Estimates (2021), Table B01001.

³ Source: Source: US Census, Decennial Census (2000, 2010); Arlington Projection Source: MWCOG Cooperative Forecasts Round 10.0; VA Projection Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, University of Virginia (2022). https://demographics.coopercenter.org/virginia-population-projections

Table 3: Age Demographics by Jurisdiction

Figure 5: Age Distribution

Working Population

An estimated 148,000 Arlington County residents aged 16 to 64 years are workers, accounting for 86.4 percent of the working age population (those aged 16 to 64).6 Table 4 shows the percentage of Arlington County working residents who commute to work, based on the American Community Survey (ACS)'s Five-Year Estimates (2021), which include a mix of pre- and post-pandemic data, as well as its One-Year Estimates (2022), which more closely reflect the current post-pandemic telework trend that has had a significant impact on commuting patterns.7 8 As shown in Table 4, approximately 64% of Arlington residents who work commute to their workplace.

Table 4: Arlington County Commuting Workers

Race and Ethnicity

Arlington County is home to a majority-white population, with approximately 60 percent of residents identifying as non-Hispanic/Latino white alone (Table 5). The next-largest share of Arlington residents are Hispanic/Latino (white and non-white), making up approximately 16 percent% of the population, followed by non-Hispanic/Latino Asian alone residents, making up approximately 10 percent of the population, followed by non-Hispanic/Latino Black alone residents, making up approximately nine percent of the population.9

Table 5: Arlington County Race and Ethnicity

Income

Table 6 shows annual earned income of the approximately 118,000 Arlington residents with full- time, year-round work.10 Approximately 17 percent of Arlington workers earn less than $50,000 annually, with an additional 37 percent earning $50,000-100,000, and the remaining 46 percent earning over $100,000. Higher income may be an indicator of jobs that can be more easily performed in a remote work environment; thus, a large proportion of higher-income workers may indicate suitability for TDM strategies like remote or hybrid work. However, TDM programs should be planned with the understanding that many jobs still require an in-person presence, such as construction, retail/hospitality, and health care workers, as well as executive-level government or corporate workers.

⁶ Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Estimates (2021), Table S2301.

⁷ Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Estimates (2021), Table B08301 and One-Year Estimates (2022), Table B08301. Note: The Census asks workers for their principal mode of travel they use to get to work or if they work from home. Those who commute are those who answered anything other than “worked from home.”

⁸ While one-year estimates reflect more current data, they are less precise because they use a smaller sample over just one year.

⁹ Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Estimates (2021), Table B03002.

Table 6: Arlington County Earnings in Past 12 Months among Full-time, Year-round Worker Population

WORKFORCE

Arlington County's workforce—defined as people who work in Arlington County but may live either in Arlington County or elsewhere—has an important influence on travel demand to, from, and within the County. The following section summarizes key considerations about Arlington County's workforce.

Workforce Size and Turnover

As of the second quarter of 2022, roughly 141,000 people worked in the private sector in Arlington County, in addition to roughly 11,000 employed in the public sector. This can be compared with Virginia as a whole, which had roughly 3.2 million people working in the private sector, in addition to roughly 500,000 employed in the public sector as of the second quarter of 2022 (Table 7).11 Arlington, therefore, has a larger share of its workers employed in the private sector (93 percent) as compared to Virginia as a whole (86 percent). The size of the workforce fluctuates throughout the year because of turnover, which is the portion of the working population that leaves a job during a quarter. Higher turnover indicates more workers leaving jobs, which generally implies a stronger labor market.

The private workforce turnover trends in Figure 6 shows Arlington County's workforce turnover rate has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend generally followed statewide post-COVID trends until the second quarter of 2022, when Arlington's rate surpassed the statewide rate for the first time since the second quarter of 2021.12 Workforce turnover rates have implications for TDM programming as workers with new jobs determine how to travel to their new job location and employers provide information to new employees on their options for getting to work.

¹¹ Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Program, 2nd Quarter (April, May, June) 2022, all ownerships. Accessed via the Census Quarterly Workforce Indicator (QWI) Explorer. ¹² Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Program. Accessed via the Census Quarterly Workforce Indicator (QWI) Explorer.

Table 7: Workforce Size and Turnover

Figure 6: Private Sector Workforce Turnover Trends

This text-only version is offered as a more accessible alternative to this PDF document: Arlington County Commuter Services Transportation Demand Management Plan (PDF, 3.85 MB).

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